Authors: Yu.S. Yakunina, O.V. Zhironkina, S.K. Ashvanyan

Title of the article: Structural cycles in the economy under external shocks

Year: 2026, Issue: 1, Pages: 43-50

Branch of knowledge: 5.2.1 Economics

Index UDK: 338.242

DOI: 10.26730/2587-5574-2026-1-43-50

Abstract: This article analyzes the interaction between exogenous external shocks and endogenous structural cycles of economic development. In contrast to classical business cycle theory, which views shocks as a source of temporary deviations from a long-term trend, the author argues that in a modern economy characterized by increased complexity and interdependence, shocks increasingly have a structure-transforming nature, acting as catalysts for shifts in technological paradigms and patterns of intersectoral and international economic interactions. The objective of this study is to develop a theoretical foundation for the transformation of short-term shock impacts into long-term structural changes. The theoretical framework is based on a synthesis of N.D. Kondratiev's long-wave theory, Schumpeter's theory of "creative destruction," evolutionary economics, and modern concepts of the macroeconomics of shocks. This article formulates the principles of an active structural policy aimed not at returning the national economy to its pre-shock equilibrium, but at effectively managing structural shifts while simultaneously increasing resilience to future shocks and developing competitive advantages in the coming technological paradigm.

Key words: structural cycles long waves external shocks technological paradigms innovation resilience

Receiving date: 10.01.2026

Approval date: 29.01.2026

Publication date: 12.03.2026

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