Authors: E.A.. Taran, E.V. Slesarenko, V.S. Zhironkin

Title of the article: On the issue of the formation of a model of the structure of im-port substitution in the Russian economy and its limitations under conditions of external shocks

Year: 2024, Issue: 2, Pages: 12-22

Branch of knowledge: 5.2.1 Economics

Index UDK: 338.242

DOI: 10.26730/2587-5574-2024-2-12-22

Abstract: The article discusses approaches that are appropriate for use in forming a model of the structure of import substitution (“black” and “white” boxes, a model of the composition of the system and its complex model), and defines the principles of modeling (hierarchization, decomposition, connectivity and abstraction). Methods used in structural modeling are highlighted, applicable for a simplified representation of import substitution - block and flow diagrams, dependency diagrams, hierarchies and classes (used in algorithmization and digital modeling of import substitution). A set of structural proportions in the economy is recommended as an object for modeling import substitution: reproductive (autonomous and induced, national, foreign and mixed, public and private investments), factor, sectoral, industrial, technological, institutional and technological proportions. The purpose of the study is to propose the main components of the import substitution structure model and identify the limitations of its application associated with the effect of external shocks. The limitations of modeling the structure of import substitution are presented, related to factors affecting external shocks, associated with the cyclical nature of structural changes and losses in labor productivity. The components of the model of the structure of import substitution in the Russian economy are identified: target guidelines for structural changes, restrictions imposed on them by external shocks, a technological map of import substitution, a set of tools for regulating the structure of import substitution and the expected results of this process. A graphical diagram of the import substitution structure model is presented.

Key words: import substitution structure model external shocks factors advanced production technologies reproduction

Receiving date: 30.04.2024

Approval date: 19.05.2024

Publication date: 08.08.2024

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