Authors: E.A. Taran, Abed Abu

Title of the article: Obstacles and limitations in modeling the structure of import substitution

Year: 2023, Issue: 4, Pages: 20-27

Branch of knowledge: 5.2.1 Economics

Index UDK: 330.133

DOI: 10.26730/2587-5574-2023-4-20-27

Abstract: The subject of the study is modeling the structure of import substitution as the optimal distribution of production factors in an economy under conditions of un-precedented external shocks and sanctions. Among the import substitution models, there are those that link production for the national market with gross investment, in line with theories of economic growth. At the same time, these models are specific and problematic in the context of sanctions laid on the Russian economy, since they have internal limitations. In general, the task of modeling the structure of import substitution under the conditions of various external sanctions and shocks using common and well-proven programming tools has not previously been faced. Therefore, a different modeling approach is needed that takes into account the possibilities of optimal resource distribution (including human capital and direct technologically related investments). At the same time, it is necessary to take into account a number of limitations inherent in the economic structure models, as well as due to unprecedented sanctions pressure. The results obtained make it possible to assess the obstacles and limitations to modeling the structure of import substitution associated with the specifics of external shock and sanctions conditions, non-linearity of investment and innovation processes, incomplete utilization of production capacity under conditions of external restrictions, as well as a reduction in the technologically related foreign investments.

Key words: import substitution economic struc-ture modeling optimal distribution system restrictions sanctions ex-ternal shocks

Receiving date: 05.11.2023

Approval date: 28.11.2023

Publication date: 13.12.2023

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