Authors: Yu.Sh. Blam, L.V. Mashkina, A.S. Stoylova

Title of the article: Specification of forecasts using national economy models in natural industrial indicators (in timber complex case)

Year: 2017, Issue: 2, Pages: 66-76

Branch of knowledge: Economics and innovation management

Index UDK: 330.44

DOI: 10.26730/2587-5574-2017-2-66-76

Abstract: The art of modeling basically consists in the ability to find and discard factors that do not affect explored characteristics of the system or have insufficient influence. If the model is too simplistic and it does not take into account some significant factors, then it is likely that erroneous data will be obtained from this model. Formation of models on the basis of which it is supposed to receive a multitude of decisions on individual subsystems of the national economy, detailed in the initial model, leads to the creation of large-scale task assignment for which it is not necessary to use a full-size model for the forecasting and specific analysis purposes. The article is devoted to detailing the aggregated forecasts obtained by the national economic model in natural indicators can be used in the industry models. In the modified Optimization Inter-Regional Cross-Industry Model we consider 8 federal districts, 11 forest industries and 12 non-forest industries, which form a national economic background. Thus, in accordance with the theory of mutual problems the model is modified into production- transportation problem with the criterion of cost minimization. The detailed procedure is based on the use of the proposed production-transportation industry model. That model has 20 types of forest materials and forest products, and includes a possibility of inter-regional transport, as well as export and import of forest products. The forecast in natural indicators which is built using such model takes into account all national economic links. This approach can be used in the development of the Development Strategy of industrial complex in the medium term.

Key words: forecast of the national economic outlook cross-industrial inter-regional model production- transportation industry model forest complex mutual problem

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